BITCOIN ABOUT TO POP! MASSIVE CRYPTO SUPERCYCLE STILL IN PLAY! [2013 vs 2017 vs 2021]

BITCOIN ABOUT TO POP! MASSIVE CRYPTO SUPERCYCLE STILL IN PLAY! [2013 vs 2017 vs 2021]

i still think we have the potential nfor a super cycle a lot of people got   it’s funny as soon as the market dips one ndirection people get really bearish and   they’re like oh what an absurd idea called a super ncycle i’m like well this looks like 2013 and that   i would say you know 2013 applied to now would be nmy definition of a super cycle like a mega cycle   um like a super cycle in terms of like either na longer bull run than we expected or a much   more intense bull run than we expected and you nknow if we go 10x from here we’re looking at   we’re looking at like 400 000 bitcoin that’s nwhat happened in 2013 it went from 100 to 1200   you know even 12x so i would say that kind of nputs us squarely in sort of super cycle territory   because at 400 000 bitcoin i mean nthat’s basically flipping gold all right welcome back everybody to altcoin daily nmy name is aaron joined with my brother austin   and joining us today a friend of the channel dan nheld he is a legend in the space great reputation   been through multiple cycles right now nhe is the growth lead at one of the top   cryptocurrency exchanges kraken dan held how nare you doing today doing great we’re still in   a bitcoin bull run so i’m happy all right good nthat’s what i want to hear yeah i know you just   recently moved to texas uh how’s everything going nwith that and how’s everything going with kraken   yeah so i’m a texas native i spent nine years nout in san francisco it was time to return   back to the homeland it’s uh it feels great out nhere it’s san francisco is a beautiful beautiful   place um you know gorgeous scenery up and and nthe north of it in terms of napa and we’re in   headlands and you’ve got tahoe but i do miss ngoing to the pool and in austin you can just   you know your apartment complex your house there’s na pool always nearby and it feels kind of fun to   just go swimming once in a while so it feels like nsummer again i haven’t felt summer in nine years   you know in san francisco there’s no swimming pool nanywhere and so yeah it feels really good it feels   good to be home loving loving the text max loving nthe pool seeing so yeah it feels good to be back   and then uh on the crack in front nor you could say what’s cracking   but so insert laugh track yeah i’m 33 nnow i guess i’m turning dad mode so   um kraken’s doing really really well i don’t know nif you guys heard but we just hit 2 000 employees   which is pretty big yeah i mean i remember nwhen jesse you know back eight years ago you   know jesse and kind of a small crew you know the nrigid origins of crack and i wasn’t there i wasn’t   working there at the time but i knew jesse for nthat long and uh it’s crazy to see how big the   company’s become i think it’s a great thing i mean nkraken’s moving along super fast there’s a lot   of initiatives that we’re doing on the marketing nfront which i work on you know we’ve we’re scaling   out the team we’ve got a ton of great projects nuh you know it’s you’re gonna you’re gonna see   kraken and more you know on the marketing nside you’re gonna see kraken in more places   you’re going to see kraken’s name mentioned more noften and i think that’s great because kraken is   that og sort of culture i think out of all nthe exchanges kraken represents that the most   you know we’re the only one to ever do proof of nreserves and jesse is uh you know he’s pretty   outspoken how he feels about regulations so yeah ni’m super happy they’re really happy to see what   we’re developing there and what we’re building and ni think you’re gonna see a lot of cool things come   out of the company that’s awesome looking forward nto it uh now dan has a great youtube channel   that’s linked down below i encourage everybody nto go subscribe to him he releases a video   every week it’s not so much news but more like big npicture evergreen stuff so you can always return   to any old video it’s a bitcoin focused youtube nchannel make sure you subscribe to that but let’s   kick it right off dan how are you feeling about nbitcoin and cryptocurrency these days what’s your   take on the current state of the market yeah nso this is my third cycle i was there in 2013   2017 and 2021. this feels like 2013. we have a nbig bull run happen in the early part of the year   um around march april may things kind of fall you nknow come down a little bit we have a little bit   of a retrace things go sideways and i think that’s nthe most torturous part of these sort of cycles   is the sideways action is it a bear market nis it a bull run no one knows you know no   one truly knows i can’t predict the future and i ndon’t want to pretend that i can um but this does   feel like 2013 where we’ve got that intense part nin the beginning sideways chop action and then   later in the year we have a second wave so it nfeels like that i think you know structurally   we’ve got all the things in place for a bull nrun if you look at will clemente if you look at   willy woo’s on chain data everything looks super nhealthy there and more an indicative of a bull   run when we look at price action this would be a nvery very mild bull run if it topped out at 65k   so i think there’s a lot more room to run there nand then back on the macro side like structurally   we’ve got every single institutional player in nthe space going in the mainstream financial world   going oh we’re thinking about buying some bitcoin ni mean that’s incredible right so i think 65 is   is that first mini peak on a bigger bull run this nyear now again this is my opinion i have no idea   what the price is going to do i have staked as na gigantic portion of my net worth on bitcoin so   if it doesn’t work out you know i’m certainly on nthe other uh you know i certainly will feel it   but all of the signs point to that the bull run nisn’t over that we should see another you know   sometime in the fall or winter another big bull nrun again and dan be real with us did that 50   correction scare you at the time ni’ve huddled so long man it’s it’s uh   i look i knew we weren’t going to retrace ndown to 20. you know people were calling for   20s they’re like oh it’s gonna hit 20 again i’m nlike it’s never done that in the previous cycles   if you’re calling for 20 then everyone else is ncalling for 25 then other people are calling for   29 and what we saw was like a brief capitulation nright at 29 28 30-ish and then bounced right back   so it’s always it’s funny like i i don’t actively ntrade i huddle and this is why i huddle i’m not   very good at day trading or picking the tops or nbottoms i’m good at hotline and hodling takes a   lot of perseverance not to be tempted to go trade nit right like it’s it you’re fighting this fear   and greed and so i think it’s a good nexercise of when you feel that pit of fear   that that like absolute panic nthat’s probably the best time to buy   now i’m not actively trading out there you nknow i’m just hodling and i can feel that   i still feel it you just let the feeling pass nthrough you you know i don’t think anyone’s   an emotionless hodler right you still feel these nthings maybe just not as intense as you did when   you first got in but when you feel that you’re nlike wait a second why am i feeling this fear   has anything fundamentally changed and then you ngo well nothing’s really changed bitcoin is still   being bitcoin and there’s no big big event and nthen um you know same one on the other side when   things feel elated that it could just keep going nup for forever which what we felt like in q1 right   you know if you’re actively trading nthis that might be a good indication   of when to sell when everyone’s like nit’ll go on forever they’ll never stop   and so um it’s so interesting too on the bull run nside so we have these news events that occur right   like negative news and positive news during a bull nrun or bear market and during a bear market the   negative news punishes you know the price downward nbut the positive news doesn’t do anything but then   in a bull run it’s the opposite right like um in na bull run positive news pushes it up but negative   news has no impact and we just saw that happen and ni’ve seen this so many times during these cycles   and that to me is a really strong read that we’re nin a bull run we saw a u.s congress try to pass   legislation that was really onerous and that nwould be very negative for bitcoin and crypto   like that that’s objective this isn’t a subjective nlike that is a very negative bad thing to happen   the market didn’t care it was crazy i mean the nmarket did not care at all bitcoin didn’t dip i   mean there might have been a one percent dip or nsomething but in bitcoin world that’s nothing   that to me read that very strongly we’re in a nbull run people brushed off the negative news   positive news pushes up the market and there seems nto be a really strong bid there you know i feel   that every little dip people are buying up i think nbitcoin had the what was it one of the longest uh   you know longest streaks uh ever of uh ngreen candles like green daily candles   so that that really screams to me bull nrun in that there’s a lot of people who   are waiting on the sidelines and around 30k nseemed like the good price to get back in   and talk to me a little bit more about these nfundamentals because will clemente we’ve had   him on the channel willy woo we’ve referenced this nstuff we are showing our audience these on-chain   fundamentals all the time but it’s almost like nthey don’t they they’re not sure if they should   believe but you’ve been watching this stuff nfor a long time could you speak a little more   it’s kind of like you’re painting a picture right nyou’ve got you’ve got on chain fundamentals you’ve   got liquidity and other things you can look nat you’ve got news stories and and feeling   like the fear and greed these all paint you na picture of what the market is saying now   this doesn’t necessarily predict what the market nwill become but if this market if the snapshot of   right now is representative of historical markets nwhat we’re seeing on chain is really good news   and some of those metrics would be like are the nold hodlers still hodling or are they selling   typically at the peak of the bull runs you see all nthe older coins start to move to exchanges and be   sold and that makes sense right someone’s huddled nfor a long time they’re wanting to take some money   off the table you know and you start to see a lot nof selling pressure so you see a lot of like older   coins become that were formally dormant become nactivated move to an exchange and sell and be sold   and they’re not seeing that right now and so i nthink that that’s a really strong indication that   we’ve got a bull run ahead of us now there’s nalso more fundamental reasons why that’s the   case you’re like okay cool who cares about these nold hodlers how about the new ones well these old   hodlers have more coin and if they’re not willing nto sell then that means there’s less coin on the   exchange for folks to go sell which means that nif demand stays the same and there’s less selling   pressure then the price goes up and that basically nthe largest hodlers of bitcoin they’re not wanting   to sell right now which means that there’s a lot nless supply it’s a basic supply demand mechanic   and so i think with will clemente’s data they were nlooking at like very early like very fresh cohorts   of like three six twelve months bitcoiner uh nhodlers selling coin during this this uh downward   trend and that showed more speculator types nrather than like long-term huddlers when the   long-term hotlers come out and start moving coins nthen that starts to indicate that the market’s   getting hot and that they believe that you know nsome of the the peak might be around the corner   yeah and that is interesting because actually ni look back in 2017 the the old hodler started   sounding like kind of even near the middle nof the 2017 bull run right up until the peak   and what you said is true we haven’t really seen nthose long-term modelers sell much of anything   at this point so so yeah pretty bullish but um nyeah there’s a lot of other metrics as well i’m   not i’m not going to pretend that i’m super fluid nknowing all these different metrics but you’ve got   various other ones like a number of new entities non chain so some sort of methodology to calculate   not just new addresses but new people or new nunique individuals and those numbers look super   healthy um and then we’ve also got like account ncreations at kraken and coinbase right like   the account creations haven’t this still very very nstrong i can’t give exact numbers but things are   super strong growth wise um and then coinbase of ncourse is public so that information is well known   we’re still seeing very much bull market nactivities here in bull market sentiment around   like people are creating accounts getting ready nto trade trading and or getting ready to trade so   the uh i would say that retail enthusiasm is still nthere it’s not as strong as q2 or q1 but it’s   still very much there that’s what we’re feeling ntoo i think uh in in youtube land uh but take   us through each bull run not not the cycle but neach specific you know the bull runs in bitcoin   usually lasts only around a year there’s one in n2013 one in 2017. now we’re in the middle of one   right now and you’ve been through them all how has neach one been different in your opinion and what   are the similarities that you see in each one yeah n2013 was really special so that was my first bull   run and it went from 10 to 260 in march 2013 back ndown to 100 sideways chopped then around october   november went from 100 to 1200 and by by the end nof december what was unique about that one is   there’s so many structural problems so silk road ngot shut down in october people forget that i mean   that was a big deal like we thought what if that nwas the only demand for bitcoin we didn’t know   there wasn’t on-chain analysis there’s no there nwere no blogs there were no youtube channels   talking about on-chain data at all so we weren’t nsure like oh man you know will demand come back um   mount gox got shut down too a couple times it had nits dwala accounts frozen in the u.s and i think   that was like july august and then by february n14 i think they had like fully shut down or like   halted withdrawals completely there was a lot of nstructural problems i mean mount cox was like this   giant you know they were 90 of trading volume and nthey were super rickety you know and uh we’re just   lucky exchange companies like coinbase didn’t nget trapped in that coinbase wasn’t in exchange   back then they were just a brokerage they created ngdax to remember and then gdax became coinbase pro   people forget that like coinbase wasn’t always in nexchange they were sourcing coins from bitstamp   fortunately but what if they had been sourcing ncoins from cox like we didn’t know that either   i don’t think they publicized that so gox nwas a huge structural problem we had silk   road getting shut down that shut down a lot of ndemand we weren’t sure if our doors were going   to get kicked in honestly there wasn’t a lot of nregulatory clearance in terms of like what we   were allowed to do now of course the bitcoin nit doesn’t the bitcoin network doesn’t care   we still weren’t sure you know being public nfaces of this new movement if we were gonna   have our doors kicked in and then be like okay nwell we’re gonna clamp down on this we understand   what bitcoin is and we we think it’s a threat nso that was very much the vibe in 13. it’s like   very like wild west 2017 um you know in early n17 is when i think bitcoin broke i think that’s   when bitcoin broke a thousand yeah i think that’s nwhen bitcoin broke a thousand was like january 17.   and then that year was just kind of a continuous nsurge with some little drawdowns um and of course   that one was was you’ve had the huge moment of nlike icos being the narrative i mean there was   i was in silicon valley and literally the word ico nwas being whispered every single place you went to   everywhere and people were inserting icos and ntokens into everything i worked at uber at the   time and we put together a blockchain strike force nteam to talk about how blockchain technology could   be implemented at uber and you know we basically nthis was in 17 you know and we basically walk   away from it going we don’t think it’s useful for nuber at all but people were just like can we put   a blockchain on it was the vibe then and there nwas just so much froth with all of the tokens   that it was just insane right i mean it was nit was kind of it was kind of mania i would   say like the vibe was just mania because there’s nso many coins hundred x seen a thousand nexting   that yeah it was just mania what i would say nwould be the vibe uh 2021 i think is more serious   like kind of a serious tone to it mixed with a nlittle bit of absurdity as well serious because   now it’s finally mainstream you’ve got one of the nwealthiest people in the world elon musk who’s   into it you’ve got his companies you’ve got other nbig billionaires and mainstream investors and   hedge funds and and insurance companies and some nsome sovereigns you know so uh venezuela talking   about adopting bitcoin bitcoins entered the nfinal arena the biggest the biggest game and um   so things are a little bit more serious in terms nof the stakes and in terms of like the narrative   um i would say bitcoin like content-wise like nthere wasn’t a lot of content before 2017. like   you’ve got myself and many others and y’all who nhave great youtube channels and podcasts and long   form content and there’s even like documentaries nnow there really wasn’t much of that before 2017   it was kind of a lonely existence when you were na bitcoin holler like i went to the having party   at bitco down not san mateo i think down in npalo alto for 2016 having there’s like 15 of us   it was yeah it wasn’t like as big of a celebration nlike 2020 where like the having then was a big   deal there was you know even websites dedicated nthere wasn’t even like a website for the having   back in 16. like i don’t remember one i’m nsure there was one but i don’t remember one   so 2021 it’s big bitcoin is big there’s nhundreds of millions of people that use it um   at the same time there’s the absurdity of the nmarket as well which i thought was going to go   away in the 2021 cycle but i was very very wrong nwhich was in dogecoin or something right like   you know retail sentiment to speculate non different assets was more than i ever   expected um so yeah i would say that that nwas probably the more surprising thing but   you know crypto is now mainstream bitcoin is now nmainstream and so i think that’s the very distinct   difference between the last you know 17 bull run nin this one and speaking of history repeating and   rhyming and you kind of already said this but it nwas very frothy back in 2017 with adding a coin   adding a blockchain in a lot of ways we are seeing nthat same froth with defy and nfts most of it is   garbage in my opinion is there anything outside nof bitcoin that that interests you especially   when you see publicly traded companies or nnotable people in the space finding interest the   space is of course very interesting nand i’ve done an exploration over there   uh both on my youtube channel so on there i’ve ndone some explorations of like for example stacks   uh stacks is is it has a really interesting ninteraction with bitcoin there’s other ones   i’m going to explore as well which would be um nsovereign so sov there’s also um like for example   like lightning is technically defy i think people ndon’t mentally bucket like lightning and smart   contracts on bitcoin as defy but the term of defy nin terms of like defining it is is pretty fluid   there’s some d5 projects that have a central ncontrol to it you know central central wallet   as we saw with that gigantic hack last week um nyou know so the term d5 is somewhat subjective   but i would say bitcoin has a lot of really cool nthings too like um distributed log contracts are   really cool on bitcoin so there’s a lot of like nbitcoin d5 stuff that i’m digging into um and   of course studying other d5 and other cryptos nyou know i’ve looked at those studied those   um the amm stuff is super interesting i still ndon’t i feel like some of the amm stuff is a   little bit disingenuous though where like folks nare like oh you can throw off this yield on your   on your coin i’m like yeah but if the market moves none direction for a long time you’re going to have   a lot more of the other asset and less of the nasset you originally posted in the liquidity pool   and they’re like oh well you might make nup for that with fees i’m like well maybe   but so i feel like some of nthe amm stuff is fascinating   but at the same time i think marketed nmarketed marketed in a way that isn’t um   completely genuine where people are talking nabout these yields where it’s like cool yeah   you’re throwing you know you you have these nthings called like permanent loss you also have   it’s a lot of incentivized yield or they’re nlike cool we give you our governance token   as a way to bootstrap liquidity and incentivize nyield but then it’s just a game of choosing of   jumping between liquidity pool to liquidity pool ntrying to chase that incentive yield um and so i   don’t know how long that game can last right the ngame only lasts as long as people buy the token   that will um you know the governance token you nknow to speculate on the governance token but   if that ends then there’s not going to be the ngovernance token incentive yield because people   won’t want to own the governance token so you nknow and it’s really interesting too because   those governance tokens are like kind of nquasi-equity but then they’re not equity   so yeah it you know i’m a bitcoiner but these nare at least interesting things i’m digging   into i’m still only huddling bitcoin but for me nit’s at least fun to explore for sure for sure   um what are your thoughts on the current state ncould we still be in a super cycle and what   would that mean or do you think enough time has npassed where maybe this cycle isn’t a super cycle   great question i’ve had a lot of people ask me nthat i still think we have the potential for a   super cycle a lot of people got it’s funny as soon nas the market dips one direction people get really   bearish and they’re like oh what an absurd idea ncalled a super cycle i’m like well this looks like   2013 and that i would say you know it 2013 applied nto now would be my definition of a super cycle   like a mega cycle um like a super cycle in terms nof like either a longer bull run than we expected   or a much more intense bull run than we expected nand you know if we go 10x from here we’re looking   at you’re looking at like 400 000 of bitcoin nthat’s what happened in 2013 it went from 100   to 1200 you know even 12x so i would say nthat kind of puts us squarely in sort   of super cycle territory because at 400 000 nbitcoin i mean that’s basically flipping gold   um i i still think there’s a chance you know i was nnever like i never had the opinion that we were   for sure in a super cycle or that a super cycle is ndestined to be but that a super cycle could happen   i think i think it’s still a small likelihood nbut i think it could happen you know we’re on   the verge of mainstream adoption here where nwhere people can buy crypto across and bitcoin   across almost any different platform paypal sofi ncash app robinhood crack and coinbase um and the   narrative 2 is pretty strong where people are nlike oh yeah this is like a legit thing this is   mainstream what happens when all the institutions nin the world start to buy bitcoin and i think you   know that still is a possibility again i’m not nsaying it’s it’s a it’s a very likely event   but i think it’s definitely possible and us nrebounding off of the 30k low i think reflects   that we’ve still got a ways to go and that nthe possibility for a super cycle was still on   how do you think what kinds of things do you think nwe’ll see as we get farther into the more mature   stages of this bitcoin bull run are we going to nsee more institutions buying in making news are   we going to see maybe another country you know nuh getting into bitcoin are we going to see an   etf launched what do you think is going to happen nthis cycle i think etf is off the table i’ve from   what i’ve heard from folks across the board i just ndon’t think there’s it sounds like there’s a lot   of resistance to an etf being approved in 2021 now nthe etf narrative will certainly propagate even if   it won’t get approved people still talk about nthe etf coming and speculate that it might come   so i don’t think the etf will occur i don’t think nlike central banks buying bitcoin will be a thing   i think that those two are more for like the nnext cycle or maybe if this isn’t if this is   an elongated bull run maybe late 2022 but i do nsee more and more institutions and corporations   buying bitcoin i think that those narratives will ndefinitely be very very sticky um because these a   lot of people resonate with these different nbrands right if it’s coca-cola apple google   like people trust these brands as much as nthey trust some governments or even more so   so as they buy that that continues to nbuild this snowball effect of legitimacy   and so i yeah i think as the bull run continues nthen we’re gonna see more and more um recognizable   names get into it which continues the this the nprocess but i do think it’s a little early for   central banks to be buying bitcoin i do think it’s na little bit early for an etf i i hope it’s i hope   i’m wrong but even though there’s etfs in like ncanada already in other places yeah i’m talking   about the the us yeah i would think maybe because nwe’re seeing it in canada and other places the   us would get to it but you’re saying maybe not nthis year well it seems on the regulatory front   there seems to be the sec seems to want to kind of nlean in across a lot of different things um we’re   getting out of my scope of knowledge in terms nof regulatory stuff but definitely seems like   the sec wants to become more involved across the ndifferent crypto assets and different crypto types   of investments like for example at yield um but nyeah we’ll just have to see what the sec thinks i just have yeah i just have one final question ni know we’re wrapping up the obligatory um love   to get your price prediction where you think nbitcoin’s going to go maybe by the end of this   year or maybe you want to do it at the end of nthe cycle in case the cycle goes into next year   however you think about it but in the context nof this cycle this bull run how high do you see   bitcoin going well if we repeat 2013 we could see nbitcoin hitting between three hundred thousand   four hundred thousand dollars bitcoin now history nusually rhymes it doesn’t repeat itself so it’s   probably not going to be exactly that but if it ndid that would be my best price point so my my   price point i would say that i think it’s gonna nland between is probably between one and three   hundred thousand but if we match thirteen again nit could be three hundred to four hundred thousand   damn dan appreciate you sharing your ntime coming on the link to dan’s   youtube channel is down below in the video ndescription final thoughts for our audience   well i’ve waited nine years to see this moment nof bitcoin becoming mainstream this is probably   one of the most exciting moments for this space so ndefinitely stick with it i think there’s a lot of   uh there’s going to be so many different news nevents that are negative just you know think   about why you entered this investment if you still nwant a whole huddle do that you know just make   sure you’re not panic selling because you heard nsomething negative i’ve been through a lot of fun   over nine years back since bitcoin is ten ndollars bitcoin is an incredibly strong asset   it’s in a great spot and i don’t think the nbull runs over yet so i’m gonna be huddling   i love it thanks so much dan nthanks for having me guys cheers
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BITCOIN ABOUT TO POP! MASSIVE CRYPTO SUPERCYCLE STILL IN PLAY! [2013 vs 2017 vs 2021]

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