Covid Haunts Job: CMIE Chief Mahesh Vyas Exclusive| News Today With Rajdeep Sardesai| India Today

Covid Haunts Job: CMIE Chief Mahesh Vyas Exclusive| News Today With Rajdeep Sardesai| India Today

let’s turn from there to the other challenge we want to discuss the latest center for monitoring indian economy study for the month of july that reveals more than 30 lakh salary jobs were lost in the month in the aftermath of covet 2.0 while the survey does show some recovery the fact is there is still uncertainty in the job market and the recovery might get longer than anticipated with today’s special report corvid is not just a health emergency it is killing jobs too [Music] 32 lakh salaried jobs were lost in just july according to a study by the center for monitoring indian economy the indian middle class is staring at a job crisis even though the economy itself could be witnessing a v-shaped recovery after the second wave mohandas shetty a resident of dahisar in mumbai had a well-paying job in a tour operating company till march 2020 but as the deadly pandemic hit mumbai he lost his job even after multiple attempts he has not been able to get a job people don’t have money nobody’s mislike other sector also because uh they have to spend some money now for some sector that’s why they’re not keeping in people also in other sectors also they don’t know right now saving no job when the business started they will get the job shetty says he has utilized all his savings he works at his relatives meat shop to make a living now you know online class also i need to pay the fees to use something everything now what to do some some data is saving how no we need to remove the saving only to the pay the fees with no option only we are not getting salary salary zero no income that that is thinking very difficult to survive johnson de souza worked on a cruise as a restaurant manager he too lost his job when the pandemic struck there’s no jobs there are people searching for jobs i have a friend as i mentioned who worked who worked with me as a manager and now he’s working as a delivery boy so the the jobs what are there are low profile either with the sales or mostly the sales johnson who hardly got two months to stay at home earlier describes his current state as a forced holiday this is the first time he has spent so much time at home in 20 years a large number of those who lost the jobs during the pandemic are now surviving on hope and prayer there is still an environment of uncertainty in the job market and going by the personal experiences of people on ground zero one can say there is still a long road to recovery with camera person sami shanbach this is pankaj in mumbai reporting for india today okay let’s go straight across to mahesh we asked the chief executive of the center for monitoring indian economy that’s come up with its latest numbers for the month of july appreciate your joining us mahesh you’ve been tracking this uh over this over the last several months there’s good news and bad news i see the bad news seems to be 3.2 million salaried people lost their months in july according to your report but the overall job loss rate in the country dropped to a four month low of six point nine five percent compared to nine point one seven percent in the month of june how do you interpret the data well all the numbers you reeled out just now are all correct so uh the story is as follows that we did see an increase in employment on an aggregate basis in the month of july but most of those jobs are almost all those jobs that came in were not of very good quality so with due respect to all kinds of labor i would like to distinguish between good quality employment as against not so good quality employment so what happened is on an aggregate we saw 16 million jobs come in july compared to june but 11 million jobs were in agriculture and mostly in the form of daily wage workers and another 5 million jobs came in from the construction industry so it is daily wage workers who are working on either construction sites or they are working on farms is the source of all the employment now the increase in farm labor was because sowing activity picked up in july because of delayed monsoon but this will not last very long after the curry sowing season is over they will all come back looking for jobs elsewhere but in the meantime we have bad news that the rest of the economy is not absorbing people enough in fact 3.2 million salary jobs were lost so informal poor quality employment is increasing but good quality salaried employment is declining so are you telling me in a way that the aftermath of covet 2.0 myhvr has hit middle class middle far more than even perhaps those at the so-called bottom of the pyramid that that’s where the real hurt at the moment is taking place middle class middle income salaried jobs being lost you are right that is the emerging picture at the moment we can see that since pre-pandemic time so you go back to 2019-20 and compare it since then since then we see that approximately nine million jobs are lost so i’m saying pre pandemic 15 months or 16 months after we hit the pandemic we’re still seeing that compared to those times we have 9 million jobs less but 10 million salary jobs are lost so you see the problem is the job losses are largely essentially off the middle classes salary jobs which we cherish so much and it’s difficult to get a salary job back you can get a job that is of pushing a cart or doing some daily wage work but getting a salary job is really very hard but but mahesh are we seeing and i’ve asked you this before a distinction particularly in covet times between consumer facing industries particularly restaurants hospitals those in the service sector versus let’s say the i.t sector where you know we keep getting these reports of much higher salaries being offered more jobs available to graduates from the it sector are we seeing very sectoral divisions as well well at least the macro picture from there is not very encouraging rajdeep in the month of july so as i said that we saw 16 million jobs they are mostly in construction and in agriculture so that leaves the rest of them doing more or less nothing so we did not see any significant increase in jobs in the services sector as a whole and not in the manufacturing sector as well both of them saw very negligible increases of 0.5 million or so which can just go off in rounding errors so the it sector is adding jobs in the larger companies but on an aggregate basis the increases over there are not significant so manufacturing which is the best quality job that one can imagine forget the i.t companies is also not adding jobs so i think this is not good news just in conclusion explain one more paradox to our viewers your consumer pyramids household survey data of cmi indicating a v-shaped recovery after the second wave on the other hand as you said loss of salary jobs are we seeing what some are calling jobless growth even if we are seeing growth it’s not growth that’s adding jobs at the moment so there is a v-shaped recovery in in july so the two most important or the most put out numbers by us which is the labor statistics and the consumer sentiment statistics tell us that compared to the recovery pattern in the first wave the recovery pattern in the second wave is much quicker so jobs came back quicker and even the sentiments bounced back quicker but the quality underlying them is not very good so i did say that we are seeing a v-shaped recovery because i was looking at the weekly numbers which are showing an improvement in july but as the months numbers came out it looked like it’s not all that good so even consumer sentiments while those numbers are a v-shape recovery it’s v-shaped to a very low low base final question do you think do you see things getting better in the next three to six months or do you believe we still are heading towards uncertain times on the job front well on a material basis i’ll say things are not getting any better in the sense that there can be some small increases for example i expect employment uh to go up to a little more than 400 million compared to the 399 million where we are right now but that’s nothing we had 408 million jobs in 2019-20 i don’t think we’re going to cross that uh even by march 22. so there will be improvement but that improvement is nothing to write home about for putting it in perspective and it’s good to track this month after month and you join us for those monthly updates appreciate your joining us it is a reality check that we need at times thanks very much the issues of our times jobs jobs jobs
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Covid Haunts Job: CMIE Chief Mahesh Vyas Exclusive| News Today With Rajdeep Sardesai| India Today

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