‘Dramatic decline’ in employment figures expected for August

‘Dramatic decline’ in employment figures expected for August

so unemployment figures are due today and this is off growth numbers yesterday which weren’t good so how do these unemployment figures have what are they expected to look like yeah morning peter and good to see it’ll be probably a tale of two stories and the reason i say that is the figures we get today are actually for july so it was more a combination of there will be some small falls in victoria but probably gains in places like south australia western australia and to even some extent new south wales which is an interesting thing to say what people are now forecasting and looking at is what happens in august and august will probably be a very dramatic decline there are some people expecting to see about 40 maybe as much as 50 000 jobs lost in august and the unemployment rate now has been forecast to climb by the end of october to 7.8 to put that in perspective we’re currently at 5.1 so that is a very very big sharp reversal to what we have seen and as you said yesterday the numbers that we were looking at were the wage price index numbers and they were the lowest level of wage price growth we’ve seen since the gfc and that’s despite the fact of how strong employment has been through january through to during this year we didn’t get any wage growth and that that obviously as we know because we are still seeing that uncertainty that pressure about how the country is going to operate over the next sort of probably 18 months businesses are confident they’re telling us that when we get things under control but it hasn’t actually sort of peated through into what we would expect we’re actually seeing wages move well that’s not happening is it i mean remember last time evan it was a quick bounce back and so that’s when when this shutdown began again because of the delta strain the assumption was that well we’ll just bounce back again but the longer this drags on and it looks like new south wales is going to face some kind of lockdown until the end of the year then talk of recession is just going to become more heated right and much more possible look so when we talk about recession it’s two quarters of negative growth so we’ve got to see that for a technical recession to happen so it would mean that october november december and you’re right to point out that new south wales is now looking a little bit more sticky the question obviously that you know better than i do with regards to how this is operating with new south wales is the vaccination rates and what happens at 50 70 and 80 percent of the vaccination rates in new south wales there is still signs that that bounce back that we have seen after every lockdown that has happened since the end of the second victorian lockdown last year that confidence returns rapidly that normal activity inverted commas in terms of what normal activities in the postcode world comes back quite quickly the question that you’re probably asking is how much have we lost in that interim how many of the sort of retail business discretionary businesses as we refer to them have gone by the wayside is the confidence that we were starting to see in the tourism industry completely shot or will that bounce back the same amount the advantage that that tourism industry has is that christmas always has a bounce there is always that seasonal movement of people because people will use tourism to actually go and see their families across the country where they can so there is that suggestion that it might not what they are saying though is that the drop in the third quarter will be harder and stronger than what was forecasted some people believing that we could actually see a decline as much as around about four and a half to even seven percent in the third quarter and then it bounced back in the fourth so it may be that we actually don’t technically have a recession but it certainly feels like it and it is different because as you pointed out the delta strain is much more contagious the ability to go to covert zero which is obviously what the premier’s continue to believe is the right option is much much harder now and victoria i think is going to show you that today with regards to what the numbers are likely to be despite being in lockdown now for over four and a bit weeks they cannot get the numbers back into single digits or even close to zero well according to harold sun this morning they’re looking at 40 cases today that’s going to be the biggest jump since last year the second wave uh all linked though that’s the positive news but still might come as a shock evan good to see you talk to you again
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\'Dramatic decline’ in employment figures expected for August

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