Fantasy NBA Today – Centers Worth Attention on the Cleveland Cavaliers

Fantasy NBA Today – Centers Worth Attention on the Cleveland Cavaliers

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[Music] welcome to the fantasy nba today podcast [Music] i’ll tell ya there are good things and there are bad things to doing a monday through friday daily pod all year round bad thing is you’re tired sometimes man sometimes you got to dig deep to come up with the good stuff the good news is doing broadcasts of any nature still gives me that little push of adrenaline that can get me up and over the hurdle i don’t know about how your wednesdays are going mine is a weird one my eldest was up at like five in the morning uh because he had a uh i think he probably had a weird dream and then decided he needed claritin in the middle of the night shout out to claritin for apparently getting us over that hurdle but it woke up the baby and the baby didn’t go back to sleep and then the baby woke the older one back up again so we live it up a long time around here but luckily we got the pod i got my fire in my belly i got a team in the central division ready to go we’re going to talk about them in a moment first hello give you the uncle leo treatment today hello i’m dan last name bespress you can follow me on twitter at danbespress d-a-n-b-e-s-b-r-i-s this is fantasy nba today a hoop ball presentation hoop hoopball is at hoopball tweets on twitter i’m giving that one out today exclusively because the draft i’m told is tomorrow you guys know how little i pay attention to the young guys i i feel like the hit rate is so low with those dudes in fantasy drafts that it’s just it’s fool’s gold our time is better spent elsewhere at least on a re-draft standpoint and there’s usually one guy that’s the good value tyrese halliburton was that guy this year unquestionably there were a couple of other young guys that played okay as the season went on like a sadiq bay played relatively well i think jay shawn tate wasn’t he an undrafted rookie he played pretty well lamelo ball but lamela was taken early wiseman stunk he was taken early that’s the problem with these draft guys is they go out in summer league and i i think that’s still happening this year despite a massive kovitz bike happening in nevada right now i think that’s still happening uh and they’re just gonna blow the roof off of guys that are not as good as them but we people can’t help but see the upside see the top gear and ignore all the other stuff it’s the magic of the law of averages combined with the magic of people’s perception or our desire our innate desire as players of fantasy sports or just viewers of sports in general that we want to remember only the extremes on what we see out of basketball players or athletes of any kind we remember the big ones we remember the little ones and we ignore everything in between and the problem with rookies in general is that the in-between and the little ones outnumber the big ones there will be those guys there’s always a couple and halliburton was a really interesting test case this year because it was a high efficiency guard who was able to play off ball quite a lot it’s a weird spot it’s hard to put up big time fantasy value when you’re not the primary point guard on your team but he did it because his percentages weren’t terrible lamela ball did it because he could just do everything because he’s a bona fide superstar in the making but i mean of all the rookies uh halliburton was sort of the one who was under drafted you can go back years and years and years with this and you can find like one rookie each year that was under drafted and it’s rarely one of the top most names it’s rarely the guy the exceptions to that rule are like cat karl anthony towns whatever it was four or five years ago now i can’t keep track of the years five years ago i think i’m not gonna look it up i’ve got all the cavs data up in front of me right now i’m going not going over to the wolves page he was under drafted even though he was still taken in like the late third early fourth round he was better than that it’s pretty damn rare you get a rookie hype guy who comes in and exceeds that number when you do it’s usually a bigger rookie a big man who can put up good field goal percent not take that many free throws score rebound and block shots do some really good stuff without screwing things up in other statistical categories the high usage ones are the ones that tank you because they haven’t figured out how to shoot the ball at the nba level or with nba defenders somewhere near them this is a very long diatribe that has nothing to do with what we’re talking about on today’s podcast all of that to say i gave you the hoopball tweets twitter handle because the draft is tomorrow and hoopball’s got live coverage of the draft starting at 5 30 p.m pacific time tomorrow thursday hosted by my good friend alan soroki you’ve heard him here uh on this show we’ve done many a live video pod together that’s probably where or in conjunction i guess we’ve done the live trade deadline show alan is a fantasy monster and the world is just learning about how smart he is which is really cool uh our buddy william harris is his co-host on that show tomorrow william is uh fantastic he’s the host of our new podcast the all rookie show the all rookie podcast that thing’s rumbling and rolling uh jillian aj of our kings coverage corbin ford who hosts our show the round ball ramble i love that name for a podcast uh david williams of our grizzlies team also a hell of a fantasy player man took everything in my bag of tricks to beat david in a roto league last year uh isaac simpson also of our grizzlies team and brad hardin of our surging hawks coverage team and our new dynasty guys rhett bauer and travis fuller all of those guys will be covering the draft tomorrow from reality and fantasy standpoints which is really i think a cool way to blend things together uh that other sites are not doing i know there’s a lot of live draft coverage out there there’ll be guys that probably have uh frankly there will be draft coverage teams that have deeper knowledge of stuff because guys that can get into arenas and scout these guys in person what we have is the hybrid model that all of these places should probably be doing but aren’t yet they’ll see us do it and they’ll do it that’s going to be on youtube make sure to follow hoop ball tweets and uh follow our live coverage tomorrow again i will remind all of you if you want to get involved with our betting operation that’s at hoop ball gaming let me know i will physically open your account and make your first deposit for you no strings attached all it has to do is be a new account so you got to be someone that hasn’t opened up an account in my bookie before it’s my bookie.ag hit me hit me the cleveland cavaliers i’m sure the very exciting name you wanted to hear me yell at the beginning of this podcast the cleveland cavaliers are your team du jour on this wednesday july the 28th edition of fantasy nba today episode 53 of our fantasy off season and the cavs are interesting it’s it’s not that they don’t have fantasy players because they actually do and they were more interesting this most recently completed season than they had been in a couple of years the problem with the cavaliers is they don’t know which way they’re going they have a high draft pick i believe they have the third pick in the upcoming draft they have money tied up in a couple of well look we’ll be pretty frank here the wrong guys and then they have very reasonable contracts for a number of fairly interesting basketball players but no superstar and no one on the team right now really profiles as a future superstar i’ll go through them quickly here and then we’ll talk about what they’ve done on the fantasy standpoint the bad contracts on the cavs one of them was acquired that was tori and prince so you can’t really put that on them he’s making 15 this coming season and he probably won’t do enough for them to actually earn 15 million dollars certainly not from a fantasy standpoint but probably not from a reality uh look at things either and then the big one the albatross is kevin love who they gave this massive 120 million dollar extension to on a tear down team in one of the weirdest salary decisions that like sometimes it’s okay to just let a guy walk because kevin love hasn’t been even in the ballpark of healthy in forever last time he played a mostly healthy season was 2015 he played 77 games that year the last five seasons he’s played 60 59 22 56 and 25. i mean we’re talking about one of the things that i like to handicap on at least for younger basketball players is that when they have a season where they’ve sat out most of a year i usually bank on that player coming back and really wanting to prove something the following year kevin love would have been that not this most recent season but last year in the uh covid early ended season but even then out of those 72 games you only played in 56 that’s a win for love right now missing only like 22 to 25 percent of his team’s games is a win now to be fair two years back the uh two seasons back i should say the covet shortened here love was number 56 on a per game basis he was out there and he was taking shots and he was doing things uh like a guy that had not really played the previous year so there is there’s a uh as a universe where next year you get that same type of kevin love because he only played in 25 of his team’s 72 games this year he missed basically two-thirds of a season and guys don’t usually like to do that multiple years in a row but does it matter is the question over his last 10 games this season with the cavaliers love averaged 13 and 8 with three assists per game little less than a steal didn’t block a shot two point two and a half three pointers on 42 from the field and 94 and a half percent at the free-throw line he’s always going to be a nice positive impact free throw percent guy so to look at his entire season this year and show him as a top 150 guy in 25 minutes a bit misleading because a bunch of what you saw was him coming back from the very large injury that knocked him out for most of the season remember love actually played the first game well not the first game he took the first game off he played one full game at the beginning of this year before uh taking three months off which is sort of an unfair way to describe it but that’s basically what happened and in that game he had 12 shots made only three of them at 15 points nine boards three assists it’s not that nuts to look at the last five to ten games that love played this year where he was more in the 28 or so minute range and realized that this is a guy who uh if he’s still in cleveland is going to be playing starters minutes because the other options for whatever it is they’re trying to do can’t do anything offensively he’s an he’s a brutal defender and he’s slow but he’s so much better than whatever they could trot out there on offense in his place that he’s gonna get a chance to play because he’s kevin love and he’s making 90 million dollars moving him is a priority moving him is also not going to be easy i also think that looking at sort of the the last 10 games type of deal for kevin love as well he only took 10 shots per game over that stretch and was just outside the top 100. it’s pretty easy to look at love and say this is a guy that can pretty easily also get more than 10 shots per game in fact if you look at his last six games he was at 10 and a half shots a game and 28 and a half minutes per game so there was an upward trend in how much he was playing over his last four games to finish this season he played 30 minutes and took 12 shots a night averaged 16 and 11 with a steal and three three-pointers 43 from field 90 at the foul line very limited limited limited sample size but notable because that was sort of full tilt iteration kevin love they were running offense through him his shot was a little bit better he was taking a ton of three-pointers and he was rebounding better than the centers he was playing with contractually there are a lot of things that need to be ironed out for the cavaliers but just from a straight value standpoint kevin love is probably and this i like you bomb it in your mouth a little bit as you’re saying it out loud he’s probably going to be a fantasy value this coming year in head to head you couldn’t touch him you couldn’t pay me enough if you were like dan i’m going to give you the first place prize and all you have to do is draft kevin love i probably still wouldn’t do it in head to head because 82 game season you’d be lucky to get 62 out of him but love is probably going to get drafted in the 90s if i had to guess 80s 90s 100 range and if he’s playing 28 minutes or more his per game numbers should walk into that territory because he’s such a good rebounder and such a good scorer and free throw shooter and he’ll make you a bunch of three-pointers that even though he doesn’t do a much on defense and his field goal percent is going to drag you down he’ll also have low turnovers so there’s a nine cat advantage there he’s also probably going to get you close to three assists a game simply again because he’s gonna have the ball in his hands and the other options on his team to score are decent but none of them is one where you’re like oh this is a guy that needs to have this instead of kevin love sorry to colin sexton sorry to darius garland those guys are decent basketball players but they’re not a head and shoulders above love you could probably argue sexton a little bit more efficient yeah garland maybe a little bit of a better passer better handle but not any one of those guys is like oh yeah that guy’s clearly a way better offensive option than love it hasn’t happened yet and i don’t know that it ever will which is why you know we we break these guys down and a lot of times i talk about limited upside on guys that don’t do anything on the defensive side or have a big time hole in their fantasy game which for him i would argue is field goal percent but some of that i i do think you have to take with a grain of salt he’s a career 44 field goal guy that has had these seasons when he’s playing through injury where he’s been in the low 40s to high 30s when he’s been quote unquote healthy it’s 42 to 46. you can say very quickly which version of kevin love you’re gonna get gamescap roto i’m all about it take the shot take the shot that he either plays in cleveland and yeah they’ll give him a ton of rest days but whatever it’s a games cap roto and if you’re getting him in the eighth round there’s a chance again i’m pointing to uh not this most recent season but coveted season last year the one that ended in march when he was playing 30 minutes a game plus he was inside the top 60 per game it’s not out of the question and i i think the next thing you should ask me is dan how much was he doing that year to get his fantasy value that high the answer that question is not that much more 13 shots per game is what it took to get kevin love inside the top 60. 13 shots a game and then whatever goes with it that number of touches everything with him works fairly uh linear when he was taking 18 19 shots a game in minnesota uh and he was getting eight free throws a game he was a first rounder when he came to cleveland it was part of their uh big two with also kevin sorry kevin uh his number dropped to 13 and that’s where it kind of hovered for a while as a top 60 type of fantasy player briefly when everybody left cleveland his number of shots per game moved back up into the 14 to 15 range and that’s where you saw oh kevin love this is an opportunity to be inside the top 25 top 30 again but now he’s getting older and so that number’s beating it to peter off looking at this very most recent season and he only took 10 shots a game a lot of that is clouded by games coming back from injury that’s the point i want to make this is a guy who when he’s playing starters minutes is top 75 with his eyes closed when he’s ever so slightly below starters minutes which is uh what he was um three years ago actually 2017 2018 in cleveland he’s playing 28 minutes a game uh he was still in that top 75 top 80 range maybe even a little bit better he’s a brilliant free-throw shooter who’s actually gotten better at that over the years he’s gonna hit a ton of three-pointers if you can stomach the low field goal percent and low blocks from a big man he’s a big man that’s like almost a little bit out of position stats type of stuff with better scoring yes the rebounds match up better scoring some decent assist very good free throw percent out of a power forward center on your roster that’s a lot about kevin love uh when there’s still a distinct possibility he gets moved even before the season begins also worth noting the cavs do have two other centers on their roster that they’re going to want to get into the lineup one of them is a restricted free agent i believe and that’s jared allen who they’ll almost definitely try to bring back and the other one who they’ve played to power forward and small forward and is frankly the heartbeat of the team is larry nance jr who signed for two more years at about 20 mil uh and one of my favorite fantasy players on earth if you’re in a games cap format because dude can’t stay healthy either let’s talk briefly about jared allen he’s a pretty easy handicap if he’s starting and playing reasonable minutes he’ll be easily inside the top 90 over this entire season which admittedly was split between two different teams allen was number 87 on a per game basis played in 63 of 72 ball games which actually meant that his total value was ever so slightly better than that at number 69. if you just look at jared allen’s time in cleveland the numbers are a tiny bit misleading because he was coming off the bench for some stretches andre drummond was there before he shut everything down uh overall his numbers in cleveland were i would argue pretty similar to his numbers in brooklyn slightly different role he took more shots rebounded a little bit less because of guys like nance and love being on the floor as well when kevin actually got back in there and then blocked shots at a little bit of a lower rate but you could also chalk the blocks up to uh adjusting you could chalk it up to just bad luck that number could easily come back next year provided the cavs re-signed jared allen i well i don’t actually know where he’s gonna get drafted but he makes sense as a really predictable second center on your roster with actually uh first center upside because we don’t we know kevin love’s not gonna play every ball game we know larry nance is not gonna play every ball game and if the cavs get off to even a not horrible start this year you might see better effort out of a guy like jared allen who’s not a good foul shooter he’s going to hurt you there but he’s a great field goal percent guy he’s more traditional in the center sense where with cleveland he was at 13 and 10 with 1.4 blocked shots that’s a number that again i’d like to see go higher in 30 minutes a game i would like to see that be a bigger number he’s generally been more than that when he sees 30 minutes and he’s sort of known for his shot blocking but he’s a guy that i would absolutely put on my fantasy team i i don’t think there’s there’s not a truckload of upside cause i don’t see him taking many more than like where he was at 8.2 shots with the cavaliers he probably doesn’t get much higher than that maybe nine at the absolute highest 10 rebounds is probably about as high as that goes so even if he gets an extra shot you’re talking at about 14.5 points 10 boards and if the blocks can creep back up to 1.6 then there’s actually quite a lot to like there the reason that there’s so much to like uh with a guy like jared allen and the the shot blocking stuff is that his value can move really quickly over his last 25 games with the cavs he only blocked one shot per game the rest of his stuff was pretty much in line with his season averages and he fell to number 143 over that stretch you chalk that back up to 1.6 and he becomes a top 75 guy that’s how fast that can change also his field goal percent was down just a tiny bit over that stretch as well but i like jared allen i don’t think the the upside is all that high unless magically the shot blocking gets to like two per game but that’s probably not happening call him call him someone that you should consider taking in the 85 range because he’s probably gonna so that’s like end of seventh round beginning of eighth round if you can get a mid eight or late eight that would be spectacular because he’s almost definitely not going to underperform that mark he’s also relatively durable it’s been a little bit weird i mean it’s hard to call this season a predictable one but prior to this season played 72 out of 82 80 out of 82 70 out of 72 and then 63 out of 72 this year with a trade in the middle of the season get rid of that and you’re probably looking at what 65 out of 72 i forget how many games you missed because of it if any regardless coveted protocols things of that nature you’re probably going to get pretty close to 90 of your team’s games out of him which means he’s going to exceed his per game marker on a totals basis that means i like him in head to head more than i like him in roto but i actually like him a fair amount in both next on the docket my buddy larry dance jr who’s not actually my friend but i wish he was because he seems like a super nice guy and i love his fantasy game except for one big issue with nance and that is dude can’t stay on the floor can’t stay on the floor cleveland has given them this golden opportunity to play starters minutes pretty damn close to it two years ago three seasons back i should say uh he played 67 out of 82 games so missing 15 that’s about 20 of a season average nine and a half points eight boards three assists 2.1 combined defensive stats and it was like this the start of everybody’s starting to take notice last season covered shorten season 56 out of 72 games 10 points seven and a half boards uh defensive stats were down that was weird i i chalked that up to sort of an anomaly because this is a guy per 36 says he’s been near two steals per game and then this year that number was back up where it needed to be 1.7 steals per game nine and a half points 6.7 rebounds that number was a little bit on the low side for him started hit some three-pointers free throw percent still sucks but he never takes any of them and played half his team’s games 35 out of 72. that’s bad that’s really bad he was number 76 on a per game basis and he was certainly much better than that early in the season and you know he’s a guy that when he gets starters minutes he’s a top 70 player pretty easily because of how many different things he does on a basketball court you guys know i love me some larry nance but you could not possibly convince me to draft him in a head-to-head he’s got the kevin love itis of not playing in enough games i will probably draft him in every roto league i’m in and i’m just going to be okay with the fact that he’s going to play 55 out of 82 games this year that’s just the way it is because you’re going to be able to get him at 100 and he’s going to be better than that on a per game basis now by totals he was a wreck he was a total train wreck this year 192 but remember his in roto you’re looking at per game more than anything 35 games at a top 75 clip terrific guess what when he gets hurt for eight weeks you drop him and you fill in those eight weeks with someone else and you hope that that someone else is inside the top 100 but that’s why per game is so valuable in a games cap roto league you want to get as many games into your cap of guys playing a top 75 clip or better whatever you can do to make that happen that’s why you take some of those shots later in drafts the upside is worth more than durability at that juncture which brings us to some of the other names on the cavs uh two of them i would consider pretty damn well known names in colin sexton uh and darius garland and then the last name we’ll talk about after those guys is isaac okoro and whether or not there’s anything there colin sexton is certainly the better fantasy player between those two guys sexton finished at 103. garland at 123 and there wasn’t a great deal of fluctuation off of that but that it looks like they’re separated by two rounds but remember that that 100 to 150 range is really like they’re almost all the same player in that neighborhood from a value standpoint you can do almost you can do very little and you can flip them flip-flop them and actually if you look at the last 25 games each of those dudes played they both ranked right around the edge of the top 100. there’s an argument to be made that going forward garland is the guy with the better upside because he’s the point guard so assists are going to be more part of his game steals are a bit more a part of his game just from an overall fantasy standpoint with sexton it’s always been about the scoring the better field goal percent but somewhat limited by the fact that he doesn’t rebound pass or steal really almost at all garland doesn’t rebound either but the other stuff he does sexton’s gonna get overdrafted because he scores 20 plus points a game those guys are rare and they’re gonna go pretty high because of points leagues that’s why it pulls their adp to a lower number meaning up the board because in a points league colin sexton is gold 24 points is fantastic you get that out of somebody every single night it doesn’t even matter what the efficiency standpoint is that’s just like guaranteed consistent value that’s your ca that’s your hamburger with ketchup and mustard you know what it is every damn game and in a points league that’s great in a category league you need more than just ketchup and mustard i’m not sure that either one of these guys is gonna end up on many of my fantasy teams uh sexton has been the more durable between the two in their uh still very early careers sexton played 82 games his rookie year 65 last year and then 60 this season but again what the hell do we take away from this year uh garland who’s only been around for two years played in 59 and then 54. so not great even by this year’s standards that’s not very good he will continue to get more of the responsibility garland i believe with the caveat that the cavs could very well bring in someone in the draft tomorrow that pulls responsibility away from both of those guys which is why in my estimation those are two guys that are absolutely targets to be overdrafted because they score garland assists they both have holes in their fantasy game garland has the ability to go higher because of the assists because of the steals because he shoots more three-pointers blah blah blah but these are just not really guys that fit my mold neither one uh at least with sexton you could make the head-to-head or points league argument hey this is a pretty damn durable dude who’s going to score a bunch of points and get you like a very small amount of most of the other things on the board like there there is value in being a guy who’s ranked near the edge of the top 100 who plays in 90 generally of his team’s gamers or more so sexton is a guy i think you could target in head to head if he fell near the edge of the top 100 i just get the feeling he’s going to go at 75 to 85 and that’s too high for me on him and then garland is probably gonna go in the hundred range and that’s fine i would probably let someone else take this the plunge on that the only way you talk me into taking garland ahead of someone at a hundred is if the cavs don’t get a ball handler in this upcoming draft but how could that possibly be because they have every center on the market so you know big man feels weird especially if they’re going to re-sign jared allen and for cleveland that makes me turn once again back to what we talked about at the beginning of this podcast which is this is a team that has three big men that i would target in different scenarios love and nance in games cap formats because i think they’ll go later than their per game numbers should indicate because they’re always so beat up and you can get away with that in a gamescape format and jared allen on the opposite side because i think he’ll probably get drafted pretty damn close to where his per game numbers bear him out which is like 75 range but he’s all he’s durable he’ll probably do better by totals than per game rankings and that’s good for head to head because in headhead you want to be able to set it and forget it you don’t want zeros you can’t make them up later i am not interested in isaac okoro is the very short answer to that one he showed some signs at the very end of the season i mean the very end of the season when everybody on the team was out everybody was sitting it out and suddenly he got to take 17 shots a night he abandoned getting steals and blocks in favor of taking 17 shots and missing most of them but he doesn’t shoot the ball well yet he doesn’t hit free throws yet he rebounds ah his steals are okay his three-pointers are okay to me he’s another year away he’s not the guy i think we roll the dice on simply because yes the opportunity is going to be there he’ll play big minutes but the per game stuff isn’t and when the other high usage guys are on the court there’s no way he’s getting anywhere near 17 shots a game he’ll be back closer to what he was during the full season a little bit higher he was at 8.3 this year you could see him getting up to like 10 but that wasn’t even close to enough to get him up and over the hump you’re going to see usage go way up field goal percent go up free throw percent go up rebounds go up he played 32 minutes a game this year and that’s where he ended up just inside the top 200 so no not quite yet worth keeping an eye on as an interesting young player but not quite there yet and then the rest of these guys who cares none of the other dudes on this team even make a the world’s tiniest like pebble in a water fountain type of splash focus on the big men unless you’re in a points league then you can take a plunge on sexton or garland that’s to me where they have their opportunity to excel a little bit better focus on the big men in category leagues games cap you take the guys that are being uh dinged up a little bit uh head-to-head or roto honestly jared allen super safe play most likely if the cavs do indeed resign them which i believe they will and that’s your cleveland cavaliers thanks for tuning in everybody on this wednesday see we got the adrenaline going we’re good we’re good tomorrow team three in the central division team four in the central division then we’ll probably put this on pause as free agency hits next week well we’ll see all that shakes out because monday’s the moratorium period but we start to hear about things they claim like players say they know where they’re gonna sign but then they can’t actually ink it for a few days later you guys know how that weirdness goes if there’s a ton of free agency news we’ll just dedicate shows to that if there’s not we’ll keep going through the teams because we friends are in ramp up mode hell yeah ramp up mode starts monday uh again tomorrow team three central division we’ll keep it rolling i’m dan bespress this is fantasy nba today later [Music] this has been a hoop ball presentation you
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Fantasy NBA Today - Centers Worth Attention on the Cleveland Cavaliers

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