Henri Makes Landfall in Northeast + Severe Weather Possible Across Parts of Central/Northern Plains.

Henri Makes Landfall in Northeast + Severe Weather Possible Across Parts of Central/Northern Plains.

hello everyone storm 101 here today we’ll be having an update on tropical storm hungary that has recently made landfall in rhode island and southeastern connecticut that’s moving to the northeast further inland towards the southwestern part of massachusetts and eventually to southeastern parts of new york curry has sustained winds of 60 miles per hour with a pressure 987 millibars moving north northwest at 12 miles per hour so it’s moving at a decent pace however when it gets into parts of the southeastern part of new york it will start to stall out for a moment later today or tonight that could bring in multiple rounds of heavy rain on the westward and severed side of the system here and finally tomorrow should start to move out and move across parts of southern vermont in new hampshire as well so what’s going to get started with the national hurricane center outlook here we’ve got two areas to watch uh of course you got chocolate store head hungry and then you also got this disturbance here which has a pretty low chance to decrease it to a 10 percent which i’m not expecting a whole lot out of the system here because it’s running over cooler water so it’s in this area right here i will also watch the gulf of mexico over the next several days here in this region here don’t be surprised in the national hurricane center highlights the area in here malls have been hitting all possibly a tropical system in a zone there so we had to watch the southwestern gulf of mexico again over the next couple of days so don’t be surprised if they issue a highlighted area either later today or tomorrow but right now the main system to focus on will be tropical storm henry which will click on it and this is the cone so this is the track of the system here the good news is it did not make landfall as a hurricane it died down to a tropical storm before it made landfall but you do have tropical storm warnings across parts of southeast massachusetts rhode island connecticut and rhode island even including parts of southern new york as well which includes the easter i believe includes the easter part of new york city as well within that tropical storm boarding it will die down to a tropical depression probably sometime eight o’clock in the morning on monday it didn’t be a a post tropical cyclone when it gets to eight o’clock on monday and eventually it starts to move out towards nova scotia in an area but you do see here there’s going to be a very sharp eastward turn here especially later today here and that’s where we’re going to be our main concern here when it stalls out somewhere in the zone in here you’re gonna have multiple rounds of heavy rainfall in this kind of general area right here on the northward well the westward in the severed side of the system here could see multiple rounds of rain which i’ll show you guys to her bottle in just a moment here’s a windspeed probabilities really in the orange covers there that’s where you probably could experience some tropical storm wind so basically connecticut rhode island massachusetts are expected to see tropical storm winds over an index several hours here before it dies out to a tropical depression peak storm surge they’ve downgraded it to two to four feet it was three to five feet some places but they recently decorated that to two to four feet so the long island sound has two to four feet storm surge uh even for along the coastline of rhode island in southeast massachusetts could see two to four feet sore surge and then one to two feet up into the uh new hampshire state line there could see one to two feet store surge as well so not really too big deal with one to two feet sore surge but really the main area is concerned will probably be areas in the two to four feet zone right in here could see some of the worst impacts with the storm surge situation here’s your wind history and you do see here that they died down to a tropical storm before it made landfall so basically it was a hurricane to about this point right here which is about probably a couple hundred miles offshore there from long island so it did die down to a tropical storm before may landfill which is some good news there and we do expect tropical storm winds to at least cover most of connecticut rhode island and massachusetts later today maybe into parts of southeastern new york as well but this is your observed winds right here now your rainfall potential this is going to be the next biggest concern here is going to be that rainfall potential and the natural the water prediction has some places that could see four to six inches of rain especially across parts of northeastern new jersey southern new york most of connecticut well actually the western half of connecticut even for western massachusetts as well and some places could see six to 10 inches away of rain and really the main area i’ll be focused on would be this area right here that could see the potential to see a significant amount of rainfall possible later today into the overnight hours when the system here starts to stall out as well so let’s check out the her model here with the system here you do see chocolate storm hungry making landfall at this point here you see it makes landfall here really on the western side here is where you have those bands a very heavy rain here we actually had significant flooding i believe somewhere in the new jersey area in new jersey that had some significant flooding to what was a a band of pretty heavy rain here which i’ll show you guys here on the radar here what it looks like right now your circulation is probably somewhere right in here probably now entering eastern connecticut and this band of heavy rain has caused many problems across parts of the jersey like i said the last video here there could be a chance for a significant rainfall for some places in new jersey whereas those laws show a significant amount of rain which unfortunately did cause a significant flooding problems across parts of new jersey yesterday i believe it to the overnight hours as well but you may have circulations right here you do have a band of pretty heavy rain on the western side so they continue to move to the northwest and eventually makes a turn there as it gets closer to albany and new york very soon and so far the hermos not doing too bad of a job here it’s actually doing a good job actually with hard re but you do see here when it makes uh when it starts to stall out in this area here probably somewhere in southeastern part of new york or western massachusetts that’s when it starts to stall out and then on the western side here you get these bands of just heavy rain here and these will be the areas to monitor pretty closely here and you just see how those bands are heavy rain go over some of the same areas and then eventually it starts to move to the east here these start to get bands of heavy rain on the severed end of this system here as well and eventually starts to move across parts of massachusetts connected to rhode island it’s probably a chocolate depression at that point here’s the rainfall from the uh her model and you do see her it does show potentially significant about rain across parts of southeastern new york where it does have sub-areas reaching to the seven to eight inch zone there may be a chance some places could see eight plus inches right however it probably isolated nature but either way even though if you don’t see eight plus inches rain i mean even if you get five to eight inches of rain you can still see some significant problems in uh southeastern part of new york even across parts of connecticut and massachusetts could see a significant amount of rain as well having some areas having two inches of rain and you’ve got some other areas that could see upwards of five inches of rain as well but i think the main area that we need to watch very closely here over the next several hours will probably summer new york there where some places may have a chance to see five to eight inches of rain as well so that’s something we need to keep an eye on on as well and almost forgot something here just pop up to my mind here let’s check out the power outage map here as well of course we’re looking at kentucky here so if we kind of go back here to view here’s some of the uh power outages that we had carry on currently going on the united states you do see here as we look into the northeast here so pennsylvania currently has well over 2 000 people out new jersey 48 100 but you get some of the better numbers as we get up into a connecticut rhode island you have about 20 000 people without power in connecticut and in rhode island which is the hardest hit state uh has getting closer to 75 000 people without power massachusetts has 6 400 without power new york has 2300 as well expect these numbers to increase especially across parts of new jersey and southern new york where we do have that better opportunity for tropical stormways and i do expect nervousness to increase throughout okay to rhode island over the next several hours here where they do continue to see some of the uh tropical stormwinds over the next several hours so here’s my updated tropical system impact index forecast here and the only difference here is i did downgrade the three out of five here since we’re not going to experience category 1 wednesday anymore so we’ve downgraded to a level two out of five so there’s a two out of five across parts of connecticut rhode island massachusetts several verbal new hampshire southeastern new york northeast or pennsylvania and even for parts of northeast or new jersey as well which also includes new york city and you have that one out of five across parts of south central new hampshire vermont southeast central new york northeast or pennsylvania even for northeast central new jersey as well let’s go into a little bit more detail here’s the wind forecast that you do see over that two to five zone that’s where you have where you could experience tropical storm stormwitch which celebrities places have already experienced a tropical storm winds right now but even for areas across parts of northeastern new jersey southeastern new york far southern vermont and new hampshire could expect tropical storm winds over the next several hours before it dies that to a tropical depression here’s some rainfall totals here and you see here in this one to five zone it’s where we could see two to five inches of rain then that two out of five zone that’s where we see five to eight inches of rain and i’ve been kind of going back and forth kind of going back and forth this morning here if i should add an area a three to five zone where some areas could see eight plus inches rain i think some places could see eight plus inches right into that area but i think it’s going to be too isolated to issue a three out of five there for right now i may change my mind later today we’ll see about that but aries are not two to five so definitely watch for the chance for a lot more rain over the next several hours here even a one to five zone here one out of five zone i should say because they quite a bit of rain as well with where some areas could see two to five inches of rain as well here’s the store store predicts there’s tornado risk and they only got a one out of five well really a two percent chance across parts of rhode island in and then eastern massachusetts as well with that two percent chance for for a tornado in a 25 mile radius of any given point in that area so that kind of keeps the forecast at one of the five on the scale so overall areas in summer vermont summer new hampshire southeast of new york connecticut rhode island massachusetts northeastern new jersey even for far northeast of pennsylvania needs to watch for possibly some major impacts over the next couple hours here there’s going to be some isolators that could see some major impacts it is only here especially across parts of the southeast central new york area where some places could see a significant amount of rain but these areas here still need to watch for some of these impacts here over the next several hours the main thread will be tropical storm winds and heavy rainfall in some of these regions as well over the next several hours so that’s much the tropical side of things sun this is not the only thing we have to watch later today here it’s not only a tropical storm uh hungry we need to watch we also need to watch severe weather across parts of the central and over plains so this is the spc outlook here for today we do have a slight risk for severe weather across parts of eastern south dakota eastern nebraska western iowa south far south western minnesota far northern kansas in far southeastern north dakota as well all hazards are possible in some of these areas we do have that five percent chance for a tornado at 25 mile radius of any given point um and the 20th fret will be elevated today david’s wins the hail will also be there as well so that hell could be large you do have that larger risk like my map showed for that low end tornado risk tomorrow there’s no risk for severe weather anywhere in the united states but day three there’s a marginal risk across parts of the midwest so let’s check out the latest her model here you do see here there is going to be a little random convection moving over some of these areas in here which may help keep the atmosphere not as unstable than without it they do seriously kind of go to later today to the after to the late afternoon hours you do start to see some thunderstorms develop which some of these could produce large hail damage winds but even for a chance for tornadoes and there could be a chance for a couple supercells which harbaugh does show one significant supercell it eats central south dakota i’ll take that’s a great assault but still either way there will be a chance for a couple supercells out there later today you do see some of those storms develop across parts of summer nebraska and far north kansas as well this is what the hardest dam staking of the severe weather setup you do see some of that strongly severe thunderstorm activity here where some of these could be supercells really stretching from southeast or south dakota even to central nebraska you do have another supercell across parts of northwest central kansas as well any of these supercells have a better chance to produce a tornado as well not only that but also for a chance for some large hail if these storms start to cluster up that’s where you probably see that best transfers of damage to winds as well which is the highest name does show that potential so we’ll check out the super uh the surface surface-based cape which the hardstyle does the best job it looks like it’s maybe a little bit slower with this but you do see decent cave numbers as far north as parts of nebraska uh north dakota i should say so go further up north here and we’ll kind of go to we’ll start up in central north dakota to central south dakota then central nebraska and it will go down to norfolk kansas to see what this ball has to say so this is for central north dakota pretty small holograph but they’ll still be favorable for some tornado activity there is enough story to felicity to work with so i think we could see at least a couple tornadoes up in central uh north dakota so that five percent may need to be expanded further up north here however i do see that probably the reason why they’re keeping a marginal is because the atmosphere is not really that unstable in the mid levels here not a lot of buoyancy going on there and the equinoxes is where how tall these thunderstorms could go and doesn’t look to be that high at all so this could be uh some weaker supercells up there probably won’t do a whole lot of anything however there is some good lap rates out there low flap rates are strong mid-level lapras are are good as well so there could be some hail up there as well and some of that could be large but i’ll say this is still lead to an all hazard type of thread damage to widths maybe some large tail and maybe even for some isolated tornadoes as well these could be low top supercells up here get a fact that equidox it’s not really going to be that high it’s up as high as 300 millibars up there let’s go a little further south let’s go into central south dakota let’s see what the heart is there but show it down there let’s try that again here i want to be sure because sometimes this website isn’t always correct it gives them something completely different out of nowhere else let’s try this again here let’s double check to make sure because i don’t know if it’s right or not okay so it is correct and it doesn’t really show a tornado threat in this area here there’s like no wind sheer to work with storytelling wise no hodograph however this is a favorable setup here for damage winds i’ll definitely say very very strong low elaborates i mean 9.8 degrees celsius per kilometer that is pretty high uh for low flat rates mid-level approach is also pretty strong so this would be favorable for some large hail at dave to win however the 20 threads if in this case will stay pretty much zero getting a factor it’s like no wind shear to work with up there let’s go to a little further south we’ll go into central nebraska and then we’ll look at to norfolk kansas it will end the video there and this probably is contaminated um i think that’s also incorrect so let’s try it again there because the cape there’s not matching up with the actual so let’s try that again sometimes this website does that this is becoming a more common issue over the last couple months all right so this is a little bit more accurate okay so this is correct again strong level elaborates here that could lead to a pretty good damage with setup and the outdrive cape is pretty strong here there is some wind shear and knots as well to work with so somebody says could become a little organized wind shear sorry to felicity wise is pretty weak so i’ll say no tornadoes will happen in this area but you also got pretty good elvid elevated mix layer there where you do have some dry air in the mid levels which i could indicate for that could help increase that hail threat as well so this would be a variable set up here for a large hail and damage winds as well and by the looks of it into norfolk kansas here looks like there could be a cap in place so we’ll go back here a little bit further here i think the harvesting may be a little bit slower than some of the other models as well yeah it might be a little bit slower okay this is better set up here than uh nebraska you do see here uh david winter is there downdraft cape six sixteen hundred that’s a lot uh low of libraries is also there there’s decent amount of instability you do have the lv mixer which is gonna help with that hail threat as well there’s actually some wheelchair to work with so there’s probably that low end tornado threat in this area as well indicated by the harass now you also notice here in the low levels there’s wind direction of height here if you go for the surface it’s straight out of the south but then you go 850 millibars it’s from the southwest and southern midparts it’s from the west so there is quite a bit wind direction of height here so there’s definitely a tornado threat in this area area in here as well so i’ll say there will be a chance for isolated tornadoes possibly some hail and there could be some damage winds out there as well so generally speaking here for the harvest nam the greatest tornado threat probably sticking around across parts of north dakota here with another area may have to watch with the possibility for tornadoes in norfolk kansas i’m sure the other malls may have a different preference which will check that out very quickly and see if these walls here have a preference you do see here up in north dakota here a little bit skinnier if that instability it’s a little bit on the weaker side but that’s still favorable for some severe weather you really only need a thousand joules per kilogram of the cape to get some severe weather that’s right all you need you do see here some degrees stability could be a place across parts of central nebraska this is the name thoughts here and it also shows adhesive set up here for some isolated tornadoes as well sorry to felicity number seems uh damage winter is definitely there as well damage of cape 1100 elaborates is there so this would be favorable for large hail david to win maybe some isolated tornadoes if you go a little further south if we get into central nebraska this will be the last city we’ll check out you do see here this seems like a favorable sounding care for a large hail with that elephant mix layer in place strong level strong lap rates that drive can be favorable for some damage winds and there’s some sorry to blissey here so maybe a quick spin a tornado seems possible so in this area here may be favorable for damaging winds it’s a large hail as well so i think the two main threats to keep an eye on here for all i for all areas may have to be to david to win a hail threat but i think the greatest tornado threat may stick around across parts of north dakota maybe into parts of south dakota as well so if you guys want to see some tornadoes or anything like that as a store chaser i probably rather go with maybe somewhere across parts of southeastern north dakota and maybe into parts of south dakota as well if you want to see large hail or anything go to nebraska i think that’s where the greatest health threat is going to be with that greater amount of instability but anyways guys there’s all of you guys today hope you guys enjoyed this video if you guys like this video hit that like button if you do like my channel hit that subscribe button hit the bell notifications so never miss upload if you’ve answered questions about this in the comment section down below or at you guys questions and i’ll see you guys in the next one goodbye
rn

Henri Makes Landfall in Northeast + Severe Weather Possible Across Parts of Central/Northern Plains.

rn

Share this post

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.