Tesla Stock In 2042 (make sure you’re sitting down)

Tesla Stock In 2042 (make sure you’re sitting down)

hey i’m stephen and this is solving the money problem if you’re new welcome if you’re not welcome back so in today’s video i’m attempting to answer one simple question can tesla stock maintain a rate of hyper growth for the next 20 plus years in the wake of tesla’s mind-blowing ai day i’ve really had to rethink my investment thesis and time horizon around tesla stock now i’m a long-term investor always have been and when i say long-term i’m talking multi-decade i began investing in real estate more than a decade ago with a plan to hold for at least 30 40 plus years oh and speaking of long-term investing and real estate just like to take this opportunity to thank my past self for investing for the long term in real estate more than a decade ago while i’ve been focused on this youtube channel for the last year year and a half almost two years now i haven’t noticed but my real estate has gone kind of bananas so guess what i’ll be doing in a few weeks time gonna be increasing my loans against that real estate pulling that money out and a spoiler alert investing all the proceeds in tesla stock and now to tie things together with this fresh injection of capital 100 of which will be going towards buying more tesla stock today in 2021 the question is what type of returns am i expecting over the next 20 plus years now i could invest that capital or waste it on anything i want to yet still today i decide out of all the potential possibilities tesla stock makes the most sense to me had i made this video before tesla’s ai day i would have come up with a very different long-term picture of where tesla would be in two decades time but ai day has completely changed the outlook for tesla the company and therefore tesla stock so that said let’s get into the video if you love crypto stocks and free stuff or just want to help out the channel check out these great offers blockfire launching the world’s first bitcoin rewards credit card people in the us can earn 1.5 bitcoin back on every purchase with no annual fee using the block five bitcoin rewards credit card check out the link in the description and for a limited time you can get up to 250 in crypto bonuses when funding a new account on blockfly where you can use cryptocurrency to earn interest borrow cash and buy or sell crypto if you want your free crypto use the link in the description and if you’d like up to two free stocks check out the link in the description to weeble if you open a new account you’ll get one free stock valued up to three hundred dollars just for opening an account and if you make an initial deposit of five dollars or more you’ll get a second free stock valued up to two thousand dollars seriously free stocks yes please and finally if you’re in australia the uk or new zealand you can get a free stock with steak also linked in the description thanks so much for your support guys let’s get back to it first of all let’s talk about automotive here we are looking at my base case projections for tesla production going out all the way till 2042 21 years from today now look if i’m being honest with you guys i’m actually being relatively conservative here i’m assuming that around 2033 tesla gets to a steady state of just over 21 million vehicles per year with no further increases in their total production capacity now in theory tesla will continue ramping production capacity well past 20 million vehicles per year but we’re going to assume that tesla enters a steady state at around 21 plus million vehicles per year because hey why not now the most important part of this isn’t automotive sales instead it’s the total fleet size tesla will have at this point in time so i’m going to tally up all the vehicles tesla will have on roads between now and 20 plus years into the future and let’s see what we come up with the grand total is a fleet size of about 330 million vehicles now a couple of questions first of all is this reasonable is this number realistic well today the entire global fleet of vehicles is approximately one billion so that would be about one-third of the global fleet transition to tesla electric vehicles and yes there’ll be other eb players as well although if i’m being honest i think most of them will be a spec compared to the volumes that tesla’s doing so in theory tesla may have displaced approximately one third of the entire internal combustion engine vehicle fleet by 2042 i think this is a fair and reasonable scenario the next question is well who cares and this is a really important point to understand if tesla has a fleet of 330 million vehicles they effectively have an in-store base of 330 plus million customers for software including their full self-driving software which by this point in time will basically be deployed in every single tesla on the planet and there’s also infotainment entertainment productivity tesla gaming black and blah blah blah so hypothetically speaking let’s assume tesla has a fleet of 330 million vehicles now it’s debatable how much will people be paying for full self driving for infotainment entertainment blah blah blah but hey just play along at home with me i’m going to pull a number directly out of my behind because that’s the best that i can do i’m going to assume 250 dollars of monthly revenue per user today that’s approximately what tesla will be charging for their full self-driving subscription not including any infotainment gaming blah blah blah of course you might argue that the full self-driving software price will become commoditized and fall dramatically maybe that plays out but then you’ve got to fill the gap a little bit with infotainment entertainment gaming etc so 250 per vehicle per month that’s a mere 82 billion dollars of pure profit revenue per month for the fleet times by 12 months and we’re looking at almost one trillion dollars of pure profit per year just from software just from the vehicle fleet i just don’t even know what else to say i really don’t now if you’re really bearish and you think stephen you’re a idiot there’s no way people are gonna be paying that much cool cut it down to 10 of this figure you’re still looking at about 100 billion dollars of pure profit just from the fleet now to give you guys some context just for some software to remove some of the stupid spam comments on this youtube channel i’m paying per month upward of 60 plus dollars if you factor in the software that i’m using to edit these videos that’s another 80 bucks thereabouts you factor in some cloud storage and other crap and i’m literally paying over 250 a month just for software related to this youtube channel and this youtube channel can’t drive me autonomously from point a to point b just saying now i’m not even going to bother factoring in the multiple hundreds of billions of dollars of pure profit tesla be making selling around 20 plus million elected vehicles per year at this point in time forget about it it’s only a few hundred billion dollars of annual profit let’s just leave it we don’t even need to include this i guess the next thing we should talk about is robo taxi fares right more vehicles on roads that are fully autonomous much higher utilization rate at least that is the theory more people are more likely to be doing more miles on roads overall if those miles are fully autonomous and much safer than human driven and significantly cheaper the latest research from arc invest suggests this is around a 12 trillion with a t trillion dollar opportunity i’ll let you guys and girls figure out what slice what percent of that opportunity do you think will go to tesla and then of course there’s energy we’re talking not only about battery storage not only for residential home customers retail customers but also commercial applications as well which is where we’re going to see huge growth in tesla’s battery storage business but we’re also talking about rooftop solar including solar panels and tesla solar glass roof and the final piece of the puzzle tying this all together is tesla’s energy software we’re talking about disrupting the traditional grid infrastructure creating large-scale distributed utilities virtual power plants energy market participation from retail customers and commercial customers rather than centralized energy generation storage and supply this is going to change the way that energy moves from point a to point b on planet earth significantly in the coming decades tesla hardware will be responsible for generating storing and supplying distributing a huge percentage of all of the energy used on planet earth by 2042 this also is a multi-trillion dollar opportunity now for those of you who haven’t seen any of my energy related content in terms of tesla and the future of the energy market overall do a search on the youtube channel there’s a ton of videos or better yet click the card in the corner and check out the most recent video that i’ve produced on this covering what the future of energy looks like on the planet spoiler alert we’re going to be using far far more energy in the future than we do today it isn’t just a matter of displacing the existing amount of energy used oh no no no we’re talking about a huge increase in total energy consumption this is a huge opportunity for tesla and one of the many reasons why elon believes that over the long term tesla’s energy business will grow to be at least the same size as their automotive business so we’ve covered the stuff that most investors are considering as part of tesla’s future the fleet robo taxi and tesla energy now it’s time to get to the really juicy part of this video and the changes that have happened to my investment thesis around tesla as a direct result of what was unveiled at tesla’s ai day now prior to tesla’s ai date i didn’t have a huge amount of clarity about how the company could continue to grow beyond the end of this decade by any meaningful amount by the way if you guys haven’t seen i’ll put a card in the corner to my tesla stock in 2031 video detailing how i believe the company’s value could increase by up to 25 times over the next 10 years and yes i’m not joking yes i’m serious please watch the video and you’ll understand where i’m coming from based on what tesla unveiled at tesla ai day we now have a very clear path for tesla’s stock to continue at a rate of hyper growth for the next 20 plus years they’ve effectively increased the horizon of insane growth by another decade so why am i so confident of this how on earth can i say 20 plus years into the future with a high level of confidence that tesla is still going to be growing at a ridiculous rate in 2042 one tesla’s groundbreaking incredible in-house chip design and dojo ai training computer but steven isn’t that just for making the full self driving better good question and no we’ll talk more about this in a moment and two tesla’s humanoid robot optimus so let me explain just how tesla’s chip design and their optimus humanoid robot tie together and how this over the long term is going to allow tessa to continue to grow at a ridiculous rate for the next 20 plus years so the way that tesla’s optimus humanoid robot and their incredible in-house chip design tied together is in this brand new piece of merch in the merch store available now couldn’t help myself now i’ve been getting a ton of dms and also saying in the comments a lot of people super disappointed they missed out on the limited edition optima spot merch or the limited edition chip stack merch design so i’ve brought back a similar design it’s not the same you’ll notice some subtle differences there featuring optimus bot on the front and the chip stack design on the back if you’re interested there’s a link in the description shirts mugs hoodies phone cases you name it available in the merch store now once again this bot and chip combo merch is available for a limited time so if you’re interested now’s the time and now back to our regularly scheduled programming i do want to talk about why the bot and the chip are so important with what tesla unveiled at ai day they have given us an indication a clue a peek into the future tesra is building the foundation of what can ultimately become artificial general intelligence the fact that tesla has designed their own in-house chip dojo is going to be training their neural networks is a hugely bullish signal that tesla’s goals with artificial intelligence go far beyond autonomous software now obviously in the near term autonomy is the first target in tesla sites but this is not where things end a huge amount of what tesla develops with their full self-driving software will be transferable into their humanoid robots think about it like this once tesla vision has solved autonomy it can be liberated and put into a humanoid form and suddenly go to the next level not only is it moving in two dimensions left right back and forth and that’s it as a car does but now it’s in a humanoid robot that can interact in three dimensions in the real world and manipulate its own hands fingers arms legs etc of course solving this artificial general intelligence will be no easy task but the perfect platform to do it is inside a humanoid robot tesla will build a fleet of vehicles and use that data to solve autonomy and so too tesla will build a fleet of humanoid robots collect data and use that to solve artificial general intelligence now i know i sound a little crazy not gonna lie i kind of am so that’s a fair point but the good thing is this video will be around in a few decades time when it turns out i was right for those of you keeping score ray kurzweil has famously predicted that the technological singularity will occur somewhere around 2045 right in the ballpark of where we’re talking in today’s video the most important takeaway from today’s video is that not only has tesla built the foundation almost solved vision one of the most fundamental and important pieces of the puzzle when solving artificial general intelligence but there’s no one else even in the game now elon musk dropped an incredibly insightful hint at tesla ai day over to you elon this i think will be quite quite profound because if you say it like what is the economy it is uh at the foundation it is labor so what happens when there is uh you know no shortage of labor um that’s why i think long long-term that there will need to be universal basic income yeah but not right now because this broker doesn’t work so we just need a minute so um yeah but i think essentially the future physical work will be a choice if you want to do it you can but you won’t need to do it and um yeah i think obviously has profound implications for the economy because uh given that the economy at its foundational level is labor i mean capital is capital equipment is just distilled labor uh then um is there any actual limit to the economy maybe not is there any actual limit to the economy maybe not the single most important thing that elon musk said in the entirety of tesla’s ai day allow me to translate in the future let’s say a few decades time if tesla is successful in developing their humanoid robot and continue to improve their artificial intelligence until the point where they’ve created artificial general intelligence tesla’s optimus pot will be able to do any task a human being can in fact it’ll be able to do any tasks a human being can and task human beings can’t and do them all better than a human could ever dream of at that point in time human beings won’t need to work i mean they can if they want to but they certainly won’t need to and it will be necessary to provide universal basic income to people because they’re going to be completely useless compared to an artificial general intelligence in a tesla humanoid robot play along at home with me today the global labor force the number of people doing paid work on planet earth around three and a half billion just imagine a time in the distant future where tesla every year is able to manufacture 100 million 200 million of their tesla bots they can do the work of one two five ten individual humans and dramatically expand the entire global economy now i know i’m probably losing a few of you here maybe you haven’t looked into the progress of artificial intelligence technology you’re not familiar with the work of people like ray kurzweil that’s fine feel free to stop watching this video but maybe i would encourage you to set a reminder check back in 20 years and see maybe we might actually be on track for something like this playing out for everyone else it’s time for a little bit of a thought exercise now i’m just going to use some round numbers because they’re easy to work with feel free to use your own numbers i’m just trying to illustrate a point here let’s imagine at some point in the future we’ll just use 2042 because why not that a tesla bot is able to add 10 times as much value to the global economy as a single human worker in other words it’s worth ten times as much as you or i are not as a person or a robot but in terms of contributing to the economy so let’s imagine today that in one year you add a hundred thousand dollars in value to the marketplace in other words you get paid a hundred thousand dollars a year if a tesla bot is ten times more productive that means it’s adding about a million dollars of value to the marketplace per year in other words an employer could hire the robot and pay it a million dollars a year and it’ll be the same equivalent value as you on a hundred thousand dollar a year’s salary i think you guys can start to see where this is going now the real question isn’t about how much will tesla actually sell the hardware for the bot itself i mean that could be ten thousand twenty thousand i don’t even know let’s just assume that it’s twenty five thousand dollars per tesla bot for the hardware probably a pretty generous estimate but hey let’s use that figure anyway because pulling numbers out of my ass so let’s continue doing that the question isn’t about the value of the hardware but the software now can you guys start to see where this is going imagine you’re a business owner you have a company you can purchase a bunch of tesla optimus bots then you can subscribe to tesla’s agi software the artificial general intelligence software which can enable this humanoid robot to outwork and outproduce a human being by 10 times or more in a single year the question is how much would this be worth how much would employers and companies be willing to pay to subscribe to this monthly software package this is really worth thinking about over the long term remember we’re talking multiple decades here and even beyond that if tesla has a fleet so to speak of hundreds of millions of humanoid robots each able to outproduce human beings by two times four times eight times ten times or more keeping in mind that agi is going to continue to get better more productive and more efficient over time so there’ll be no end in sight to these productivity gains over time how much would businesses and people be willing to pay for the software running these humanoid robots really take some time to think about this put your feelings and emotions to the side and think about the raw numbers now i’m sure there’s a few people in the comments who’ve already argued but there’s no way that by 2042 there’ll be robots that are smarter than people now if i’m being honest i think the people writing these comments are probably going to be those who the capabilities of the robots first surpass get wrecked bro but in all seriousness it’s not about the timing i don’t care if it’s 2042 2052 2069 for all i care the point is tesla today is clearly in the pole position for developing agi and they’re already working on the humanoid robot in which to put that agi aka its game over it doesn’t matter when tesla solves this problem it just matters that they solve this problem and they’re in the pole position and no one else is even in the race now i understand that this is far and away the craziest video i’ve ever made in terms of predictions but i stand by them in my opinion tesla will be the first company to have working artificial general intelligence in a humanoid robot and these robots will systematically displace human labor starting with some boring repetitive and dangerous jobs but ultimately working their way up to practically everyone on the planet human labor will ultimately become entirely optional universal basic income will become entirely necessary and humanoid robots powered by artificial general intelligence which continues to improve over time will dramatically expand the global economy to levels no one could even conceive of today and it’s evident that tesla is going to have an outsized hand in this enormous disruption don’t say i didn’t warn you so to sum this one up as crazy as it sounds i actually believe over the next 21 years taking us all the way out to 2042 tesla can remain in a state of hyper growth with a compound annual rate of growth of over 40 percent per year and yes i have actually done the calculations and worked out what the market cap is and it’s so insane that i’m gonna let you guys and girls do your own calculations because if i put this in a video i’m gonna get laughed off the entire internet but seriously guys take some time to think through the implications here it seems evident to me today that all the pieces of the puzzle are coming together and this seems like an inevitable outcome over the next few decades and just to bring things full circle i opened today’s video explaining that i’m a long-term multi-decade investor prior to tesla’s ai day i was under the impression that there’d be extremely strong growth at least for another 10 maybe 15 years but after ai day that time horizon has extended to 20 30 plus years into the future and that’s why i’m about to squeeze every spare cent out of my real estate portfolio and invest every one of those dollars in tesla stock i just can’t find a better investment opportunity with a long-term investment horizon i’d love to know what you guys and girls think in the comments below what do you think tesla’s market cap will be 21 years time in 2042 and don’t forget new limited edition merch featuring the optima spot on the front and tesla’s chip stack design on the back the big combination that’s going to see tesla through to this insane future valuation link in description only available for a limited time i’m stephen mark ryan this is solving the money problem and i love you all and don’t forget the block five bitcoin rewards credit card but you can earn 1.5 bitcoin back on every purchase there’s a link in the description you can also earn up to in crypto bonuses when funding a new account on block flight also linked below and finally don’t forget your free stocks with weeble and stake also linked in the description these great offers also help out the channel thanks so much for watching let me know your thoughts in the comments below and of course if you have any ideas for future videos let me know i read all your comments ps if you’re still watching you’re awesome if you’d like early access exclusive videos regular q a’s our private discord server and more consider supporting the channel at patreon.com solving the money problem so i can keep creating content for you guys there’s a link in the description you can now also become a member of the channel for some exclusive perks to learn more click the join button next to subscribe and don’t forget to check out our merch store either way the best form of support is you being here and watching so thanks again
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Tesla Stock In 2042 (make sure you’re sitting down)

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